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How does this work?
A valuation is an assessment of the value of one share in a company, it is not necessarily the same as the price listed in the sharemarket. You can use a variety of methods to value a company, Valuecruncher uses Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to help people create the valuations you see below.
Valuecruncher Valuation
23.53%
from latest share price
Your Valuation
| Valuation | Compared to price | Member |
 Created
|
Views |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.41 |
23.53%
|
Valuecruncher | 23 Nov 2008 | 0 |
| $4.11 |
16.1%
|
NZXCrunchBlog | 15 Oct 2008 | 30 |
| $3.43 |
0.88%
|
KiwiEMH | 12 Oct 2008 | 17 |
| $3.58 |
18.54%
|
KiwiEMH | 01 Oct 2008 | 17 |
| $3.69 |
12.5%
|
KiwiEMH | 14 Sep 2008 | 26 |
| $3.91 |
 -1.01%
|
KiwiEMH | 18 Jul 2008 | 36 |
| $4.13 |
0.73%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 30 Jun 2008 | 69 |
| $4.61 |
2.22%
|
GordonGekko | 27 Jun 2008 | 39 |
| $5.65 |
-0.88%
|
GordonGekko | 25 Apr 2008 | 37 |
Recent Comments
| Updated: | 3 hours ago |
| Ticker: | WHS |
| Market: | NZE |
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/10/running-the-numbers-the-warehouse-whsnz/
Assumptions
In 2008 (July balance date) WHS.NZ had revenues of NZ$1.735 billion and an EBITDA margin (profits) of 9.25%. Reuters aggregates eight analysts covering WHS.NZ and these have mean estimates of 2009 and 2010 revenues of NZ$1.744 and NZ$1.799 billion respectively. For this analysis we have used revenues of NZ$1.75 billion in 2009, NZ$1.8 billion in 2010 and NZ$1.835 billion in 2011. We have forecast EBITDA margins rising from 9.5% in 2009 to 10.5% in 2011. We have estimated capital expenditure in the NZ$55-60 million range. All of these assumptions can be amended in the Valuecruncher on-line valuation model to adjust the valuation.
Other Model Assumptions:
Discount Rate: 9.0%. PwC in their New Zealand cost of capital report calculates WHS.NZ WACC at 8.4%.
Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0%. The New Zealand economy has grown at an average rate of 2.6% over the last five-years.
Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the WHS.NZ balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/06/understanding-the-warehouse-whs-valuation/
Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are NZ$1.745 billion in 2008 increasing to NZ$1.825 billion in 2010 – a compound annual growth rate of 2.3% (2008-10). We have projected flat EBITDA margins of 10% to 2010.
We have used a terminal growth rate of 3%. This is based on a New Zealand long-run economy growth rate. If you have a more optimistic or pessimistic view of the growth for WHS this will impact the valuation.
We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 8.5 %. The WACC (discount rate) has a material impact on a discounted cash flow valuation (as does the terminal growth rate). PricewaterhouseCoopers December 2007 cost of capital report gives WHS a calculated WACC of 8.2%.
We used a terminal capital expenditure number of NZ$60 million. In our opinion capital expenditure should stabilise around this number.