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How does this work?
A valuation is an assessment of the value of one share in a company, it is not necessarily the same as the price listed in the sharemarket. You can use a variety of methods to value a company, Valuecruncher uses Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to help people create the valuations you see below.
Valuecruncher Valuation
31.22%
from latest share price
Your Last Valuation
| Valuation | Compared to price | Member |
 Created
|
Views |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $68.51 |
31.22%
|
Valuecruncher | 09 Jan 2009 | 0 |
| $42.57 |
 -11.55%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 25 Oct 2008 | 207 |
| $50.43 |
8.71%
|
GordonGekko | 24 Oct 2008 | 27 |
Price History
Recent Comments
Company Details
| Updated: | 4 hours ago |
| Ticker: | UPS |
| Market: | NYSE |
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/10/running-the-numbers-intrinsic-valuation-for-brown-ups/
Assumptions
Revenue: Reuters aggregates 12 analysts covering $UPS and these analysts have mean estimates of 2008 and 2009 revenues of US$52.8 billion and US$56.4 billion respectively. For our analysis we have used US$52.0 billion in 2008, US$54.0 billion in 2009 and US$58.0 billion in 2010. We are worried about near term global economic conditions - which will impact companies like $UPS.
Profitability: We have used an EBITDA margin of 15.0% flat to 2010.
Capital Expenditure: We have assumed capital expenditures of US$2.85 billion in 2008 and then US$3.0 billion per annum moving forward.
Discount Rate: 10.0%. We believe that a discount rate in the 9-10% range is reasonable. Dropping the discount rate to 9% increases the valuation to US$51.75 (7.5% above the current share price).
Terminal Growth Rate: 3.5%.
Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt the $UPS balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.