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How does this work?
A valuation is an assessment of the value of one share in a company, it is not necessarily the same as the price listed in the sharemarket. You can use a variety of methods to value a company, Valuecruncher uses Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to help people create the valuations you see below.
Valuecruncher Valuation
51.18%
from latest share price
Your Valuation
| Valuation | Compared to price | Member |
 Created
|
Views |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.06 |
51.18%
|
Valuecruncher | 23 Nov 2008 | 0 |
| $9.21 |
 -0.97%
|
GordonGekko | 23 Nov 2008 | 1 |
| $19.24 |
26.16%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 06 Oct 2008 | 190 |
| $19.09 |
25.18%
|
GordonGekko | 05 Oct 2008 | 23 |
| $19.36 |
14.35%
|
KiwiEMH | 27 Sep 2008 | 45 |
| $16.23 |
-2.41%
|
GordonGekko | 21 Sep 2008 | 33 |
| $17.41 |
-3.22%
|
GordonGekko | 17 Sep 2008 | 32 |
| $25.84 |
0.82%
|
GordonGekko | 28 Aug 2008 | 34 |
| $23.94 |
3.82%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 01 Jun 2008 | 187 |
| $24.24 |
27.04%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 31 May 2008 | 53 |
| $20.69 |
8.44%
|
GordonGekko | 22 May 2008 | 55 |
| $18.42 |
-3.31%
|
BudFox1987 | 24 Apr 2008 | 54 |
Recent Comments
| Updated: | 5 hours ago |
| Ticker: | DELL |
| Market: | NASD |
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/10/running-the-numbers-dell-has-fallen-too-far/
Our assumptions are revenues of US$65.0 billion in 2009 growing to US$70.0 billion in 2011. We have used a flat EBITDA margin of 6.5% to 2010 and then 7% in 2011. Our terminal growth rate is 3.0%. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$800 million. Our WACC (discount rate) is 12.0%. All of these assumptions can be amended in the Valuecruncher on-line valuation model to adjust the valuation. Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the $DELL balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.
We believe that our assumptions are reasonably conservative. The near-term revenues and profitability are very achievable. The terminal growth rate is about the US economic long-term growth rate. The discount rate of 12% is reasonably high reflecting the uncertainty around $DELL.
Revenues grow from $66bn in 2009 to $73.5bn in 2011 - there will be reasonable revenue growth in the near term. EBITDA margins flat at 6.5% - profits will be tight. WACC is 11.5% - there is some uncertainty in the business with global demand concerns off-setting the opportunities in developing markets. Terminal growth is at 3%. CAPEX is $750m in 2009 topping out at $900m.
Valuation of $19.36 is 14% above the current share price. Dell looks cheap.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/06/analysing-dells-turnaround/
Our assumptions are revenues of US$65.5 billion in 2009 growing to US$75.0 billion in 2011. We have used an EBITDA margin of 7% in 2009 rising to 7.5% in 2010 and 2011. We have used a terminal growth rate of 4.0%. We calculated that using a present value calculation with the growth rate dropping from 7.5% in 2012 to 3.5% in 2016. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$900 million. We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 11.5%.