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How does this work?
A valuation is an assessment of the value of one share in a company, it is not necessarily the same as the price listed in the sharemarket. You can use a variety of methods to value a company, Valuecruncher uses Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to help people create the valuations you see below.
Valuecruncher Valuation
7.13%
from latest share price
Your Valuation
| Valuation | Compared to price | Member |
 Created
|
Views |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40.57 |
7.13%
|
Valuecruncher | 23 Nov 2008 | 0 |
| $62.65 |
 -10.45%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 26 Sep 2008 | 138 |
| $60.34 |
-25.51%
|
GordonGekko | 23 Sep 2008 | 26 |
| $81.16 |
0.48%
|
KiwiEMH | 04 Sep 2008 | 31 |
| $83.39 |
0.34%
|
GordonGekko | 19 Aug 2008 | 34 |
| $79.54 |
-1.2%
|
KiwiEMH | 11 Aug 2008 | 34 |
| $78.46 |
-0.33%
|
KiwiEMH | 26 Jul 2008 | 38 |
| $59.00 |
-19.54%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 07 Jul 2008 | 188 |
| $76.27 |
-4.88%
|
GordonGekko | 19 May 2008 | 51 |
| $44.07 |
-40.87%
|
virtualmark | 14 May 2008 | 46 |
| $58.29 |
-24.6%
|
sethc | 05 May 2008 | 47 |
| $58.11 |
-27.53%
|
Sam | 22 Apr 2008 | 55 |
Recent Comments
| Updated: | 3 hours ago |
| Ticker: | AMZN |
| Market: | NASD |
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/09/running-the-numbers-amazon-amzn-still-looks-expensive/
Our assumptions are revenues of US$19.5 billion in 2008 growing to US$30.5 billion in 2010. We have used an EBITDA margin of 7% in 2008 increasing to 8% in 2010. We used a terminal growth rate of 5%. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$375 million. We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 10.5%. All of these assumptions can be amended in the Valuecruncher on-line valuation model to adjust the valuation.
Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the $AMZN balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.
Based on our analysis the current share price looks expensive. We recognise that $AMZN has a range of potentially valuable growth options (especially their Web Services platform). Currently it is very difficult to determine a value of these growth options – we have made a broad attempt with our growth projections and terminal growth rate. However, it appears that these options are being valued into the current share price at a level beyond what we are projecting.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/07/is-amazoncom-really-worth-over-70-a-share/
Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are US$19.5 billion in 2008 increasing to US$29.5 billion in 2010. We have projected EBITDA margins increasing from 7% in 2008 to 8% in 2010.
We have used a terminal growth rate of 5%. Our view is that AMZN’s growth beyond 2010 will slow – but there is a distance to go yet. Our numbers project 2009 to 2010 revenue growth of 23%. This assumption has a significant impact on the valuation. If you believe AMZN has better future prospects – this will positively impact the valuation.
We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 10.5%. The WACC (discount rate) has a material impact on a discounted cash flow valuation (as does the terminal growth rate).
We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$350 million. In our opinion capital expenditure should stabilize around this number.