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How does this work?
A valuation is an assessment of the value of one share in a company, it is not necessarily the same as the price listed in the sharemarket. You can use a variety of methods to value a company, Valuecruncher uses Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to help people create the valuations you see below.
Valuecruncher Valuation
62.67%
from latest share price
Your Valuation
| Valuation | Compared to price | Member |
 Created
|
Views |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $121.81 |
62.67%
|
Valuecruncher | 23 Nov 2008 | 0 |
| $108.18 |
29.4%
|
Derek | 23 Oct 2008 | 8 |
| $130.55 |
41.12%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 22 Oct 2008 | 246 |
| $109.17 |
24.41%
|
GordonGekko | 14 Oct 2008 | 15 |
| $128.25 |
7.39%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 29 Sep 2008 | 188 |
| $133.50 |
14.63%
|
GordonGekko | 26 Sep 2008 | 20 |
| $131.42 |
1.09%
|
KiwiEMH | 26 Jul 2008 | 31 |
| $141.42 |
19.31%
|
TheCrunchBlog | 19 Jul 2008 | 485 |
Price History
Recent Comments
| Updated: | 6 hours ago |
| Ticker: | IBM |
| Market: | NYSE |
Even with those assumptions (which are completely reasonable) - the valuation is still nearly 30% above the current share price.
Revised numbers downwards in 2009 and 2010
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/10/running-the-numbers-ibm-ibm-trading-well-below-intrinsic-value/
Assumptions:
Revenue: Reuters aggregates 17 analysts covering $IBM and these analysts have mean estimates of 2008 and 2009 revenues of US$106.7 billion and US$111.7 billion respectively. For our analysis we have used US$105.0 billion in 2008, US$106.5 billion in 2009 and US$110.0 billion in 2010.
Profitability: We have used an EBITDA margin of 20% flat to 2010. Reuters has $IBM‘s EBITD margin at 20.26% last year.
Capital Expenditure: We have assumed capital expenditures of US$5.0 billion in 2008 and 2009 rising to US$5.5 million in 2010 and beyond.
Discount Rate: 10.5%.
Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0%.
Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt the $IBM balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/09/running-the-numbers-ibm-is-cheap/
Our assumptions are revenues of US$105.0 billion in 2008 growing to US$115.0 billion in 2010. This growth is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for 2007-10 this compares to a 4% CAGR from 2005-7. We have used a flat EBITDA margin of 20% to 2010. We used a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$5.5 billion. We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 9.0%. All of these assumptions can be amended in the Valuecruncher on-line valuation model to adjust the valuation.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/07/ibm-still-looks-cheap-at-us130-a-share/
IBM grew revenues from US$91.4 billion in 2006 to US$98.8 billion in 2007 – 8% year-on-year growth. Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are US$109.0 billion in 2008 growing to US$121.0 billion in 2010 – a 7% compound annual growth rate. We have projected EBITDA margins to grow from 20.0% in 2008 to 21.0% in 2010. We have used a terminal growth rate of 3%. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$5.75 billion. We have utilised a WACC (discount rate) of 9%.