Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Discount cash flow analysis
5% margin of safety What's this?
Sensitivity matrix
|
-1% |
Discount Rate % 0% |
1% |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | $80.37 | $78.45 | $76.61 | |
| Terminal Growth% | 0 | $81.53 | $79.54 | $77.65 |
| +1% | $82.72 | $80.67 | $78.73 |
How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?
This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate
Valuations and comments
- Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $91.42 (overvalued by 30.63%) - 1 hour ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $94.51 (overvalued by 22.17%) - 1 month ago
- beatallica created a new valuation of $74.74 (overvalued by 41.43%) - 1 month ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $99.04 (overvalued by 24.82%) - 3 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $109.00 (overvalued by 10.39%) - 4 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $70.97 (overvalued by 9.0%) - 9 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $53.54 (overvalued by 32.4%) - 10 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $65.61 (overvalued by 8.16%) - 11 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $48.71 (overvalued by 5.58%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $62.65 (overvalued by 10.45%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $60.34 (overvalued by 25.51%) - 1 year ago
- KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $81.16 (undervalued by 0.48%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $83.39 (undervalued by 0.34%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $76.27 (overvalued by 4.88%) - 1 year ago
- sethc created a new valuation of $58.29 (overvalued by 24.6%) - 1 year ago
- virtualmark created a new valuation of $44.07 (overvalued by 40.87%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $59.00 (overvalued by 19.54%) - 1 year ago
- KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $78.46 (overvalued by 0.33%) - 1 year ago
- KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $79.54 (overvalued by 1.2%) - 1 year ago
- Sam created a new valuation of $58.11 (overvalued by 27.53%) - 1 year ago
Comments
The boring details
| All amounts in millions | Figures |
| Enterprise Value: | 53,216 |
| Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): | -1,830 |
| Equity Value: | 30,628 |
| Number of Shares Outstanding: | 417,000,000 |
| Calculated value per share: | $79.54 |
Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.
Where:
- C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
- r - the discount rate
To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.
Where:
- Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
- LTG - the long-term growth rate
- r - the discount rate
- g - the terminal growth rate
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.
Where:
- rt - the risk free rate
- t - the tax rate
- B - the beta of the company
- MRP - the Market Risk Premium
Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.