Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Ltd (FPA)
Discount cash flow analysis
5% margin of safety What's this?
Sensitivity matrix
|
-1% |
Discount Rate % 0% |
1% |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | $1.37 | $1.31 | $1.25 | |
| Terminal Growth% | 0 | $1.40 | $1.33 | $1.27 |
| +1% | $1.42 | $1.36 | $1.29 |
How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?
This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate
Valuations and comments
- Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $1.00 (undervalued by 66.67%) - 12 hours ago
- Scarydog created a new valuation of $0.98 (undervalued by 71.93%) - 3 months ago
- sambling created a new valuation of $0.35 (overvalued by 46.15%) - 5 months ago
- DarrylLundy created a new valuation of $0.78 (overvalued by 1.27%) - 7 months ago
- DarrylLundy created a new valuation of $0.78 (overvalued by 1.27%) - 7 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.68 (undervalued by 1.49%) - 9 months ago
- kuahyeow created a new valuation of $0.67 (overvalued by 2.9%) - 9 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.67 (overvalued by 2.9%) - 9 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.78 (undervalued by 18.18%) - 9 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.50 (undervalued by 13.64%) - 11 months ago
- lwatson created a new valuation of $1.07 (undervalued by 143.18%) - 11 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.57 (undervalued by 14.0%) - 11 months ago
- gordonsk created a new valuation of $0.47 (undervalued by 27.03%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $0.09 (overvalued by 75.68%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $0.00 (overvalued by 100.0%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $0.00 (overvalued by 100.0%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $1.72 (undervalued by 364.86%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $1.72 (undervalued by 364.86%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $4.27 (undervalued by 1054.05%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $0.00 (overvalued by 100.0%) - 12 months ago
- da903 created a new valuation of $0.47 (undervalued by 27.03%) - 12 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.47 (overvalued by 9.62%) - 1 year ago
- Bert created a new valuation of $2.95 (undervalued by 490.0%) - 1 year ago
- NZXCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $1.33 (undervalued by 0.0%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $2.53 (overvalued by 4.89%) - 1 year ago
- MarkC created a new valuation of $2.50 (overvalued by 6.02%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $3.89 (undervalued by 52.55%) - 1 year ago
Comments
The boring details
| All amounts in millions | Figures |
| Enterprise Value: | 960 |
| Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): | 789 |
| Equity Value: | 378 |
| Number of Shares Outstanding: | 284,000,000 |
| Calculated value per share: | $1.33 |
Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.
Where:
- C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
- r - the discount rate
To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.
Where:
- Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
- LTG - the long-term growth rate
- r - the discount rate
- g - the terminal growth rate
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.
Where:
- rt - the risk free rate
- t - the tax rate
- B - the beta of the company
- MRP - the Market Risk Premium
Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/10/running-the-numbers-fisher-paykel-appliances-fpanz/
Assumptions
Revenue: Reuters aggregates seven analysts covering $FPA.NZ and this produces mean estimates of 2009 and 2010 revenues of NZ$1.445 billion and NZ$1.549 billion respectively. For our analysis we have used NZ$1.425 million in 2009, NZ$1.525 billion in 2010 and NZ$1.60 billion in 2011.
Profitability: We have used an EBITDA margin of 10% in 2009 rising to 11% in 2011. Reuters has $FPA.NZ‘s EBITD margin at 10.3% last year and an average of 12.8% over the last five-years.
Capital Expenditure: We have assumed capital expenditures of NZ$85.0 million in 2009 then NZ$65.0 million moving forward.
Discount Rate: 9.5%. The PwC New Zealand cost of capital report has $FPA.NZ at a WACC of 9.3% with the wider NZ market at 9.5%.
Terminal Growth Rate: 3.5%.
Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt the $FPH.NZ balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.