WestJet Airlines Ltd. (WJA)

Discount cash flow analysis

Buy Undervalued by 343.2%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for WestJet Airlines Ltd., based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1% 		Discount Rate %
0%
1%
  -1% $58.27 $57.04 $55.87
Terminal Growth% 0 $58.86 $57.61 $56.41
  +1% $59.47 $58.19 $56.97

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $22.14 (undervalued by 70.31%) - 18 hours ago
  • alext created a new valuation of $14.69 (undervalued by 17.43%) - 1 year ago
  • usamakhan created a new valuation of $6.76 (overvalued by 42.61%) - 1 year ago
  • usamakhan created a new valuation of $5.28 (overvalued by 55.18%) - 1 year ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $14.69 (undervalued by 27.3%) - 1 year ago
  • johndrama created a new valuation of $10.75 (undervalued by 0.47%) - 1 year ago
  • thecatpreacher created a new valuation of $57.61 (undervalued by 456.08%) - 1 year ago
  • Abo created a new valuation of $15.75 (undervalued by 8.25%) - 1 year ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 2,170
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 507
Equity Value: 1,325
Number of Shares Outstanding: 127,000,000
Calculated value per share: $57.61

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.

Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.

Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.

CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.