Woolworths Limited (WOW)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 25.2%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Woolworths Limited, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $25.32 $24.91 $24.52
Terminal Growth% 0 $25.45 $25.04 $24.64
  +1% $25.58 $25.17 $24.77

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $16.24 (overvalued by 51.46%) - 5 hours ago
  • Josephyong created a new valuation of $41.27 (undervalued by 41.14%) - 8 months ago
  • Josephyong created a new valuation of $17.09 (overvalued by 41.55%) - 8 months ago
  • billdawsydney created a new valuation of $26.59 (undervalued by 7.35%) - 1 year ago
  • billdawsydney created a new valuation of $26.41 (undervalued by 6.62%) - 1 year ago
  • kewen13 created a new valuation of $20.83 (overvalued by 23.92%) - over 2 years ago
  • kewen13 created a new valuation of $24.30 (overvalued by 8.82%) - over 2 years ago
  • bmanishs created a new valuation of $26.47 (overvalued by 8.98%) - over 3 years ago
  • vietboii created a new valuation of $73.78 (undervalued by 155.21%) - over 3 years ago
  • vietboii created a new valuation of $15.39 (overvalued by 46.77%) - over 3 years ago
  • vietboii created a new valuation of $24.14 (overvalued by 14.37%) - over 3 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $24.88 (overvalued by 3.72%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $25.01 (overvalued by 3.21%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $25.06 (overvalued by 3.02%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $25.85 (undervalued by 0.04%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $19.16 (overvalued by 25.85%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $19.09 (overvalued by 26.12%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $16.35 (overvalued by 36.73%) - over 4 years ago
  • nat4bash created a new valuation of $26.54 (undervalued by 2.71%) - over 4 years ago
  • Lespe959 created a new valuation of $25.27 (overvalued by 0.9%) - over 4 years ago
  • gordonsk created a new valuation of $25.04 (undervalued by 1.17%) - over 4 years ago
  • JStew82 created a new valuation of $26.77 (undervalued by 1.56%) - over 5 years ago
  • Sam created a new valuation of $26.47 (overvalued by 5.77%) - over 5 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 43,299
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 2,291
Equity Value: 30,333
Number of Shares Outstanding: 1,225,000,000
Calculated value per share: $25.04

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.