Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Discount cash flow analysis
5% margin of safety What's this?
Sensitivity matrix
|
-1% |
Discount Rate % 0% |
1% |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | $126.71 | $125.22 | $123.79 | |
| Terminal Growth% | 0 | $127.26 | $125.75 | $124.30 |
| +1% | $127.82 | $126.29 | $124.82 |
How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?
This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate
Valuations and comments
- Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $195.49 (overvalued by 13.73%) - 5 hours ago
- Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $195.49 (overvalued by 13.73%) - 17 hours ago
- wantes created a new valuation of $225.61 (undervalued by 12.43%) - 18 days ago
- tobyzero created a new valuation of $194.49 (overvalued by 2.41%) - 1 month ago
- tnaga created a new valuation of $306.10 (undervalued by 50.73%) - 1 month ago
- tnaga created a new valuation of $340.27 (undervalued by 67.55%) - 1 month ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $189.23 (overvalued by 4.31%) - 1 month ago
- antbatalha created a new valuation of $187.47 (overvalued by 9.9%) - 1 month ago
- mikedemon created a new valuation of $180.26 (overvalued by 13.79%) - 2 months ago
- denmwa2030ce created a new valuation of $202.64 (undervalued by 4.82%) - 3 months ago
- denmwa2030ce created a new valuation of $190.17 (overvalued by 1.63%) - 3 months ago
- denmwa2030ce created a new valuation of $235.72 (undervalued by 21.93%) - 3 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $192.30 (overvalued by 0.05%) - 4 months ago
- sh0n created a new valuation of $184.36 (overvalued by 2.9%) - 4 months ago
- sh0n created a new valuation of $186.13 (overvalued by 1.96%) - 4 months ago
- sh0n created a new valuation of $179.67 (overvalued by 5.37%) - 4 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $176.16 (overvalued by 7.29%) - 5 months ago
- burakakduman created a new valuation of $174.76 (overvalued by 6.05%) - 5 months ago
- burakakduman created a new valuation of $44.97 (overvalued by 75.83%) - 5 months ago
- burakakduman created a new valuation of $168.06 (overvalued by 9.65%) - 5 months ago
- spike created a new valuation of $190.14 (undervalued by 10.44%) - 6 months ago
- spike created a new valuation of $341.69 (undervalued by 98.47%) - 6 months ago
- spike created a new valuation of $341.69 (undervalued by 98.47%) - 6 months ago
- laguerriere created a new valuation of $161.80 (overvalued by 2.27%) - 7 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $161.62 (undervalued by 1.02%) - 7 months ago
- manchini created a new valuation of $155.77 (undervalued by 2.65%) - 8 months ago
- manchini created a new valuation of $445.71 (undervalued by 193.71%) - 8 months ago
- gvrtalks created a new valuation of $140.87 (undervalued by 0.61%) - 8 months ago
- gvrtalks created a new valuation of $140.87 (undervalued by 0.61%) - 8 months ago
- divechip created a new valuation of $150.84 (undervalued by 8.14%) - 8 months ago
- divechip created a new valuation of $140.67 (undervalued by 0.85%) - 8 months ago
- seamuskrat created a new valuation of $140.59 (undervalued by 3.31%) - 9 months ago
- jschern created a new valuation of $164.59 (undervalued by 20.16%) - 9 months ago
- jschern created a new valuation of $116.05 (overvalued by 15.27%) - 9 months ago
- jschern created a new valuation of $157.75 (undervalued by 15.17%) - 9 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $140.57 (undervalued by 2.63%) - 9 months ago
- kdevcich created a new valuation of $164.66 (undervalued by 15.37%) - 9 months ago
- kdevcich created a new valuation of $140.59 (overvalued by 1.49%) - 9 months ago
- kdevcich created a new valuation of $139.48 (overvalued by 2.27%) - 9 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $139.16 (overvalued by 1.27%) - 9 months ago
- dimpi created a new valuation of $93.67 (overvalued by 28.38%) - 9 months ago
- ckc2 created a new valuation of $126.68 (overvalued by 0.44%) - 10 months ago
- ckc2 created a new valuation of $145.62 (undervalued by 17.53%) - 10 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $101.20 (overvalued by 16.89%) - 10 months ago
- Brownmp created a new valuation of $141.59 (undervalued by 14.72%) - 10 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $125.75 (undervalued by 9.35%) - 11 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $121.48 (undervalued by 2.56%) - 11 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $115.44 (undervalued by 10.48%) - 11 months ago
- mlongval created a new valuation of $100.82 (overvalued by 0.76%) - 11 months ago
- rs12345 created a new valuation of $91.18 (undervalued by 2.63%) - 1 year ago
- rs12345 created a new valuation of $78.43 (overvalued by 11.72%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $96.00 (undervalued by 0.1%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $118.87 (undervalued by 10.48%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $125.99 (undervalued by 29.79%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $163.98 (undervalued by 16.37%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $156.43 (overvalued by 6.98%) - 1 year ago
- lancewiggs created a new valuation of $219.71 (undervalued by 29.45%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $144.74 (overvalued by 19.59%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $199.59 (undervalued by 6.07%) - 1 year ago
- Abo created a new valuation of $100.47 (overvalued by 46.6%) - 1 year ago
- benkepes created a new valuation of $74.80 (overvalued by 59.84%) - 1 year ago
- LordTrask created a new valuation of $150.67 (overvalued by 16.84%) - 1 year ago
- andrew created a new valuation of $91.09 (overvalued by 49.72%) - 1 year ago
- Philip created a new valuation of $116.63 (overvalued by 37.33%) - 1 year ago
- KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $166.28 (overvalued by 10.65%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $200.12 (undervalued by 7.53%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $146.70 (overvalued by 21.17%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $197.63 (undervalued by 6.2%) - 1 year ago
- stuartm created a new valuation of $228.96 (undervalued by 23.52%) - 1 year ago
- acoy created a new valuation of $96.26 (overvalued by 47.0%) - 1 year ago
- andrew created a new valuation of $99.27 (overvalued by 40.71%) - 1 year ago
- Gaurav created a new valuation of $175.53 (overvalued by 5.68%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $149.75 (overvalued by 9.95%) - 1 year ago
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The boring details
| All amounts in millions | Figures |
| Enterprise Value: | 177,309 |
| Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): | -24,490 |
| Equity Value: | 102,413 |
| Number of Shares Outstanding: | 890,000,000 |
| Calculated value per share: | $125.75 |
Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.
Where:
- C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
- r - the discount rate
To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.
Where:
- Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
- LTG - the long-term growth rate
- r - the discount rate
- g - the terminal growth rate
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.
Where:
- rt - the risk free rate
- t - the tax rate
- B - the beta of the company
- MRP - the Market Risk Premium
Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.