Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Discount cash flow analysis
5% margin of safety What's this?
Sensitivity matrix
|
-1% |
Discount Rate % 0% |
1% |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | $199.46 | $194.86 | $190.49 | |
| Terminal Growth% | 0 | $202.38 | $197.63 | $193.11 |
| +1% | $205.41 | $200.48 | $195.82 |
How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?
This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate
Valuations and comments
- Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $140.83 (undervalued by 0.58%) - 10 hours ago
- divechip created a new valuation of $150.84 (undervalued by 8.14%) - 10 days ago
- divechip created a new valuation of $140.67 (undervalued by 0.85%) - 10 days ago
- seamuskrat created a new valuation of $140.59 (undervalued by 3.31%) - 17 days ago
- jschern created a new valuation of $164.59 (undervalued by 20.16%) - 17 days ago
- jschern created a new valuation of $116.05 (overvalued by 15.27%) - 17 days ago
- jschern created a new valuation of $157.75 (undervalued by 15.17%) - 17 days ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $140.57 (undervalued by 2.63%) - 17 days ago
- kdevcich created a new valuation of $164.66 (undervalued by 15.37%) - 23 days ago
- kdevcich created a new valuation of $140.59 (overvalued by 1.49%) - 23 days ago
- kdevcich created a new valuation of $139.48 (overvalued by 2.27%) - 23 days ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $139.16 (overvalued by 1.27%) - 28 days ago
- dimpi created a new valuation of $93.67 (overvalued by 28.38%) - 1 month ago
- ckc2 created a new valuation of $126.68 (overvalued by 0.44%) - 2 months ago
- ckc2 created a new valuation of $145.62 (undervalued by 17.53%) - 2 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $101.20 (overvalued by 16.89%) - 2 months ago
- Brownmp created a new valuation of $141.59 (undervalued by 14.72%) - 2 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $125.75 (undervalued by 9.35%) - 2 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $121.48 (undervalued by 2.56%) - 2 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $115.44 (undervalued by 10.48%) - 3 months ago
- mlongval created a new valuation of $100.82 (overvalued by 0.76%) - 3 months ago
- rs12345 created a new valuation of $91.18 (undervalued by 2.63%) - 3 months ago
- rs12345 created a new valuation of $78.43 (overvalued by 11.72%) - 3 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $96.00 (undervalued by 0.1%) - 7 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $118.87 (undervalued by 10.48%) - 8 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $125.99 (undervalued by 29.79%) - 9 months ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $163.98 (undervalued by 16.37%) - 9 months ago
- andrew created a new valuation of $91.09 (overvalued by 49.72%) - 1 year ago
- LordTrask created a new valuation of $150.67 (overvalued by 16.84%) - 1 year ago
- benkepes created a new valuation of $74.80 (overvalued by 59.84%) - 1 year ago
- Abo created a new valuation of $100.47 (overvalued by 46.6%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $199.59 (undervalued by 6.07%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $144.74 (overvalued by 19.59%) - 1 year ago
- lancewiggs created a new valuation of $219.71 (undervalued by 29.45%) - 1 year ago
- Philip created a new valuation of $116.63 (overvalued by 37.33%) - 1 year ago
- KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $166.28 (overvalued by 10.65%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $200.12 (undervalued by 7.53%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $146.70 (overvalued by 21.17%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $197.63 (undervalued by 6.2%) - 1 year ago
- stuartm created a new valuation of $228.96 (undervalued by 23.52%) - 1 year ago
- acoy created a new valuation of $96.26 (overvalued by 47.0%) - 1 year ago
- andrew created a new valuation of $99.27 (overvalued by 40.71%) - 1 year ago
- Gaurav created a new valuation of $175.53 (overvalued by 5.68%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $149.75 (overvalued by 9.95%) - 1 year ago
- jeremy created a new valuation of $156.43 (overvalued by 6.98%) - 1 year ago
Comments
The boring details
| All amounts in millions | Figures |
| Enterprise Value: | 108,058 |
| Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): | -15,386 |
| Equity Value: | 164,070 |
| Number of Shares Outstanding: | 881,000,000 |
| Calculated value per share: | $197.63 |
Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.
Where:
- C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
- r - the discount rate
To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.
Where:
- Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
- LTG - the long-term growth rate
- r - the discount rate
- g - the terminal growth rate
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.
Where:
- rt - the risk free rate
- t - the tax rate
- B - the beta of the company
- MRP - the Market Risk Premium
Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/06/getting-apple-to-200-a-share/
Starting with this valuation:
http://www.valuecruncher.com/valuations/924/edit
To move the valuation we looked at three key levers:
1. The discount rate (or weighted average cost of capital – WACC). This is a measure of the variability (both up and down) of the cash flows generated by AAPL. The more variable the cash flows the higher the discount rate. Because we are trying to get the valuation to $200 we looked at lowering the discount rate from our base case 11.0%. If we lower the base case discount rate to 10.0% (keeping all the other assumptions constant) we increase our valuation to $175.53 (a 20% increase – but still below the current share price).
2. The terminal growth (the rate of growth into the future beyond our three-year forecast period). At Valuecruncher we use a present value calculation to determine this growth rate (the present value of five years of cash flows beyond our three years of forecasts and an economy wide terminal rate – 3.5%). In our base case the 2009 to 2010 growth rate is expected to be 18-20% - based on analyst estimates. We used a 17.5% growth rate in 2011 dropping to a terminal rate of 3.5% from 2015. In this case we used a 25% growth rate in 2011 (this is above current 2009/10 forecasts of 18-20%) dropping to a terminal rate of 3.5% in 2015 – this gives a terminal growth rate of 6.25% compared to 5.75% in the base case. If we increase the terminal growth rate to 6.25% (keeping all the other assumptions constant) we increase our valuation to $159.11 (an 8% increase).
3. The terminal capital expenditure (CAPEX). This is the investment in plant, equipment and technology needed to maintain and grow the cash produced by the business expressed in revenues and profits. In our base case we used a US$900 million terminal CAPEX number. If we reduce this by US$100 million we increase our valuation to $148.49 (a 1% increase).
However if we adjust all three of these levers at the same time – discount rate to 10%, terminal growth to 6.25% and terminal CAPEX to US$800 million (while keeping all the other base case assumptions constant) – we do get close to $200 a share. The combination of those adjustments to our base case valuation is shown in the link below to a new valuation created using the Valuecruncher valuation tool. The result is a valuation of $197.63 – this is 35% above our base case valuation and 6% above the current share price.