3M Company (MMM)
Discount cash flow analysis
5% margin of safety What's this?
Price history
Sensitivity matrix
|
-1% |
Discount Rate % 0% |
1% |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | $86.04 | $84.85 | $83.69 | |
| Terminal Growth% | 0 | $86.35 | $85.16 | $83.99 |
| +1% | $86.67 | $85.47 | $84.29 |
How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?
This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate
Valuations and comments
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $85.61 (undervalued by 8.12%) - 1 month ago
- jim1023 created a new valuation of $76.95 (overvalued by 2.82%) - 1 month ago
- tinmanvc created a new valuation of $78.55 (overvalued by 4.56%) - 1 month ago
- tinmanvc created a new valuation of $78.55 (overvalued by 4.56%) - 1 month ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $72.60 (overvalued by 10.34%) - 2 months ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $53.45 (undervalued by 0.6%) - 11 months ago
- SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $38.77 (overvalued by 20.31%) - 11 months ago
- afi created a new valuation of $46.23 (overvalued by 3.69%) - 1 year ago
- dlk61494 created a new valuation of $77.47 (undervalued by 39.91%) - 1 year ago
- rrfield created a new valuation of $43.04 (overvalued by 26.77%) - 1 year ago
- dweis created a new valuation of $60.90 (overvalued by 3.43%) - 1 year ago
- TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $85.16 (undervalued by 16.72%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $89.74 (undervalued by 22.9%) - 1 year ago
- acoy created a new valuation of $70.37 (overvalued by 7.19%) - 1 year ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $79.32 (undervalued by 2.12%) - 1 year ago
- tiger created a new valuation of $85.84 (undervalued by 12.47%) - 1 year ago
- Sam created a new valuation of $0.00 (overvalued by 100.0%) - 1 year ago
Comments
The boring details
| All amounts in millions | Figures |
| Enterprise Value: | 60,323 |
| Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): | 2,445 |
| Equity Value: | 51,384 |
| Number of Shares Outstanding: | 704,000,000 |
| Calculated value per share: | $85.16 |
Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.
Where:
- C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
- r - the discount rate
To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.
Where:
- Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
- LTG - the long-term growth rate
- r - the discount rate
- g - the terminal growth rate
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.
Where:
- rt - the risk free rate
- t - the tax rate
- B - the beta of the company
- MRP - the Market Risk Premium
Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.
This valuation is part of this blog post:
http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/06/3m-more-more-more-looks-cheap/
3M grew revenues from US$16.3 billion in 2002 to US$24.5 billion in 2007 – 8.4% compound annual growth rate. Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are US$26.5 billion in 2008 growing to US$29.5 billion in 2010 – 6.4% compound annual growth rate. We have projected EBITDA margins remaining flat at 26.5%.
We have used a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. We calculated this terminal growth rate based on year three growth (2009 to 2010) of 5% dropping to a 2% stable growth rate over the next ten years.
We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 9%. The WACC (discount rate) has a material impact on a discounted cash flow valuation (as does the terminal growth rate). We think this WACC of 9% is reasonable but recognise that the actual number could be as low as 7.5-8.0% or as high as 10%.
We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$1.5 billion.