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10 June 2008 | 183 views
Valuation Assumptions What are these?
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Discount
Rate (%)
Terminal
Growth (%)
Tax (%)
Dollar507Point85
Arrow_up_green70.75% from latest share price

Revenue ($ million)

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2007 2008 2009 2010
 
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Profitability (EBITDA) Margin (%)

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2007 2008 2009 2010
 
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Comments (1)


A scenario approach to valuing Google - Black Swan

This valuation is part of this blog post:

http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/06/a-scenario-approach-to-valuing-google-goog/

3. Black Swan – where Google’s internal activities create a new growth business similar in value to Salesforce.com. The new business grows from US$250 million in revenues in 2009 to US$1.5 billion in 2012 and from $250m in losses to 50% EBIT margins in the same period. To reflect this we have increased 2009 revenues by US$250 million and 2010 revenues by US$500 million. We have reduced the 2009 EBITDA to 39%. We have also lifted the terminal growth to 6.65%. This scenario has a valuation of US$507.85 per share. This is 6.4% below the current share price and 5.4% above our base case valuation. Google creating a new business of the value of Salesforce.com adds just under US$26 to our base case share price.

By TheCrunchBlog, 4 months ago


Valuation Details

Member: TheCrunchBlog
On: 26 Jun 2008
Views: 183
Comments: 1
Latest Share Price: $297.42
Updated: 43 minutes ago
Ticker: GOOG
Market: NASD